Death Projections

 

April 5, 2020

The number of projected US deaths from COVID-19 steadily increases.

The White House projected 100,000 to 240,000 US deaths under the current social distancing guidelines.
-CBS News


Given where we are today – a total of 3900 deaths nationwide, it is hard to believe that we could end up with a total of 240,000 deaths, more than 60 times the current tally.

Some people are more inclined to believe the projections than others. It is tricky business developing epidemiological models,[1] They are, in fact, susceptible to assumptions researchers make about human behavior, health messaging, how the virus infects people, and how contagious the virus is.

The projections themselves, if publicized, might even affect health outcomes. If people believe the projections and are motivated to work hard to defeat the disease, the projections may overestimate the infections and “prove themselves false.” If people don’t believe the projections and don’t follow safety measures, the projections may underestimate the infections and resulting deaths. The more unknowns, the more difficult it is to make an accurate prediction. And a new virus comes with many unknowns.

U.S. Attorney General Jerome Allen warned Americans to brace for the “hardest and saddest” week of their lives, anticipating more deaths throughout the country. He said he expects levels of tragedy reminiscent of the Sept. 11 terrorist attacks and the bombing of Pearl Harbor.

Too late. Already the coronavirus has claimed 9100 American lives, compared to less than 3000 who perished in each of the previous tragedies.


[1] As a graduate student at U.C. Berkeley 40 years ago, I used statistical modeling to predict student achievement in elementary school classrooms.




I live in Seattle and have time to think. Muse, even. Retired from research consulting and report writing, I now write about family history and life around me.

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