Projections of a COVID Death Toll

Monday, March 30, 2020: Last week President Trump mused about how beautiful it would be for everything to go back to normal, with people back at work, by Easter, which falls on April 12. The increased infections being reported make it clear that two weeks from now is not a realistic end date. 

So, Trump's health advisers (Dr. Anthony Fauci, Director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, and Dr. Deborah Birx, global health ambassador and diplomat since 2014) were forced to engage in damage control. After the press conference, the health advisers reported that Trump's comment about Easter was merely “aspirational.” In other words, just kidding, he didn't really mean it. 

In follow-up interviews, the doctors assured the American people that Trump understands the safety measures will be needed longer than that. This nimble reinterpretation of Trump’s words does not fool me. I understand the doctors are trying to present some consistent messaging about health safety measures, but I am disappointed that they would engage in such a blatant ass-covering exercise.

This week, Trump deferred to his health experts and extended the federal voluntary guidelines. The guidelines recommend against group gatherings larger than 10, urge those with existing health problems and older people to stay home, urge people to work from home, avoid non-essential travel, and avoid restaurants and bars.

The recommendations are not new to Washington State residents, who have been under those very orders for a week or more. Governor Inslee has promoted his orders for the state of Washington as a national model. But the federal government is reluctant to announce anything stronger that voluntary recommendations.

It seems that efforts to curb the pandemic are politically contentious. Business leaders have warned Trump that an extended shutdown could affect the economy and consequently damage his reelection chances. It baffles me that an aggressive federal response to a deadly virus is not also considered an important function of responsible leadership - one that would also affect the election. 

Business leaders are not the only ones who keep Trump from taking a stronger role to diminish the spread of the virus. Trump's refusal to listen to political rivals leaves Trump unable to coordination with local leaders throughout the country. For example, Trump's animosity toward Washington State governor Jay Inslee dampens Vice President Mike Pence's ability to work with Inslee, who has the most experience dealing with the virus due to the early cases in the state. 

Earlier this month, Pence, who Trump has put in charge of the federal COVID-19 response, visited Washington State to work with Inslee. Inslee has called for federal assistance for more COVID-19 testing and personal protective equipment (PPE) for health care workers. That visit did not sit well with Trump, who at a press conference had choice words for Inslee, one of several Democratic presidential candidates:

“So I told Mike not to be complimentary to the governor, because that governor is a snake, Inslee,” Trump said. “And I said, ‘If you’re nice to him, he will take advantage.’ And I would have said no.”

“Let me just tell you, we have a lot of problems with the governor, the governor of Washington … we have many problems,” Trump added. “So Mike may be happy with him, but I am not.”

Yet, Trump's "voluntary recommendations" are substantially the same as Inslee's. Trump has been forced to respond to experts' warnings that the projected death toll from COVID-19 could reach more than 100,000, even though the current national death toll is only 3% of the 100,000 that has been projected.

More than 3,000 people have died from coronavirus in the U.S. and more than 164,000 cases have been confirmed, according to Johns Hopkins University.

It is hard to believe that the relatively low current death count could reach 100,000. But I believe the projections and the scientists more than politicians, especially as Trump refuses to acknowledge the seriousness of the virus and refuses to put national health orders in place. I believe Fauci, who says 100,000 deaths are entirely possible if not enough is done to mitigate the crisis.