Projections of a COVID Death Toll

Monday, March 30, 2020: Last week President Trump mused about how beautiful it would be for everything to go back to normal, with people back at work, by Easter, which falls on April 12. The increased infections being reported make it clear that two weeks from now is not a realistic end date. 

So, Trump's health advisers (Dr. Anthony Fauci, Director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, and Dr. Deborah Birx, global health ambassador and diplomat since 2014) were forced to engage in damage control. After the press conference, the health advisers reported that Trump's comment about Easter was merely “aspirational.” In other words, just kidding, he didn't really mean it. 

In follow-up interviews, the doctors assured the American people that Trump understands the safety measures will be needed longer than that. This nimble reinterpretation of Trump’s words does not fool me. I understand the doctors are trying to present some consistent messaging about health safety measures, but I am disappointed that they would engage in such a blatant ass-covering exercise.

This week, Trump deferred to his health experts and extended the federal voluntary guidelines. The guidelines recommend against group gatherings larger than 10, urge those with existing health problems and older people to stay home, urge people to work from home, avoid non-essential travel, and avoid restaurants and bars.

The recommendations are not new to Washington State residents, who have been under those very orders for a week or more. Governor Inslee has promoted his orders for the state of Washington as a national model. But the federal government is reluctant to announce anything stronger that voluntary recommendations.

It seems that efforts to curb the pandemic are politically contentious. Business leaders have warned Trump that an extended shutdown could affect the economy and consequently damage his reelection chances. It baffles me that an aggressive federal response to a deadly virus is not also considered an important function of responsible leadership - one that would also affect the election. 

Business leaders are not the only ones who keep Trump from taking a stronger role to diminish the spread of the virus. Trump's refusal to listen to political rivals leaves Trump unable to coordination with local leaders throughout the country. For example, Trump's animosity toward Washington State governor Jay Inslee dampens Vice President Mike Pence's ability to work with Inslee, who has the most experience dealing with the virus due to the early cases in the state. 

Earlier this month, Pence, who Trump has put in charge of the federal COVID-19 response, visited Washington State to work with Inslee. Inslee has called for federal assistance for more COVID-19 testing and personal protective equipment (PPE) for health care workers. That visit did not sit well with Trump, who at a press conference had choice words for Inslee, one of several Democratic presidential candidates:

“So I told Mike not to be complimentary to the governor, because that governor is a snake, Inslee,” Trump said. “And I said, ‘If you’re nice to him, he will take advantage.’ And I would have said no.”

“Let me just tell you, we have a lot of problems with the governor, the governor of Washington … we have many problems,” Trump added. “So Mike may be happy with him, but I am not.”



Yet, Trump's "voluntary recommendations" are substantially the same as Inslee's. Trump has been forced to respond to experts' warnings that the projected death toll from COVID-19 could reach more than 100,000, even though the current national death toll is only 3% of the 100,000 that has been projected.

More than 3,000 people have died from coronavirus in the U.S. and more than 164,000 cases have been confirmed, according to Johns Hopkins University.

It is hard to believe that the relatively low current death count could reach 100,000. But I believe the projections and the scientists more than politicians, especially as Trump refuses to acknowledge the seriousness of the virus and refuses to put national health orders in place. I believe Fauci, who says 100,000 deaths are entirely possible if not enough is done to mitigate the crisis. 

I live in Seattle and have time to think. Muse, even. Retired from research consulting and report writing, I now write about family history and life around me.

Comments

Post a Comment

Popular posts from this blog

First Sight

Image
March 10, 2020:  For the past five days, my husband Doug and I visited our daughter Angela and her husband Harry at their home in San Francisco. Over the weekend, each received instructions from their workplaces that starting Monday, March 9, they were to work from home.  Doug and I made ourselves scarce on Monday so "the kids" could get their work done. We drove to the north end of the city under blue skies, for a walk along the Yacht Harbor. As we arrived, we noticed that several people were taking pictures of a cruise ship passing under the Golden Gate Bridge. On any beautiful sunny day like this one, the bridge is a stunning backdrop for ships sailing below. It would not be unusual to see people snapping photos. This time it was different. People made detours from the walking path to take their photos. The moment we parked nearby, we realized this was not just any ship. It was the Grand Princess cruise ship we had heard about - the one carrying 21 passengers who had teste...
Read more

Introduction - Read this first

In January, 2020, a man in his 30's was the first in the U.S. to be diagnosed with COVID-19, a novel coronavirus related to SARS and MERS. The man had traveled to Wuhan, China, where the outbreak began, and returned home to Washington State, where I live. At the end of February, the first death was reported in Kirkland, Washington. A nursing home in that city became the center of an outbreak where two-thirds of the residents and dozens of staff members tested positive; 40 deaths became linked to the facility. But the virus did not stop with our state or our country. In March, as the World Health Organization declared the virus a pandemic, I realized I was living through what would become a significant point on historic timelines. I began to write about the ways the coronavirus was changing the lives of everyone around me.  The first stay-at-home orders from local officials kept us from work, school, and most of our daily routines. Those of us stuck at home stocked up on basic food ...
Read more

Kitchen Re-org

Image
Tuesday, March 24, 2020: Last week, I tore apart two of my kitchen cupboards and rearranged them. For twenty years I have loosely separated baking ingredients from canned goods in my pantry and called that good enough. Now the fruit is separated from the vegetables, the condiments from the jams. The crackers have their own corner and gluten free ingredients reside above the glutinous flours. The shelves never before had labels. They do now.  When I was done, I breathed a huge sigh of relief, bigger than I expected. Why was cabinet cleaning the highlight of my week? As I spend more time at home, neater surroundings become more important. When the world has gone topsy-turvy, neatness brings a calm I seem to crave. But is that all? When there is little to look forward to on my calendar, rooting around among the ingredients on my pantry shelves suggests new cooking and baking projects – projects I can plan for the future, even if the future is only a day or two away. While I feel ...
Read more